FREE TO CITE · UPDATED Jul 15, 2026
THE LOADSTAR NUMBER
the generation-queue reality gap
50.5×
READING AS OF 2026-07-15 · RECOMPUTABLE FROM OFFICIAL QUEUE DATA
Across the live U.S. ISO interconnection queues, active generation and storage requests of 50 MW and up total 883.2 GW — part of the supply pipeline for future load growth, including the AI-era buildout. For every GW showing a signed interconnection agreement or construction status in the queues' own published data (17.5 GW), up to 50.5 GW sit in the queues as requests.
This measures the GENERATION interconnection queue — power plants and storage seeking interconnection to serve future load growth, of which AI data centers are one driver — not data-center (large-load) interconnection requests, which most ISOs do not publish; we track those separately where disclosed. ‘Signed / under construction’ is our keyword reading of each ISO’s published queue-status text, applied consistently across all seven queues; it is not a certified field. Because status disclosure varies by ISO (PJM clearest), 17.5 GW is the minimum confirmable progress — a floor, not a boundary — and 50.5× is correspondingly the maximum multiple consistent with the published data (computed on unrounded MW). Queue totals include duplicative and speculative entries — historically only a minority of queued MW reaches operation (LBNL ‘Queued Up’: roughly 13–20% completion) — and that attrition is part of what this measures. Descriptive of today, not a forecast. Full criteria.
For every gigawatt with a signed agreement or under construction, up to 50.5 GW sit in the queues as requests.
Up to 98% of the queue cannot yet be confirmed as committed.Arithmetic on the two numbers above. ‘Committed’ is a floor, so this share is a ceiling. A request we cannot confirm is not thereby a phantom — it is unproven.
The queue’s total requested capacity now exceeds the highest hourly demand the United States has ever recorded.
883.2 GW of requests on file vs the all-time U.S. hourly demand record of 759.2 GW — requested capacity, not coincident demand
(
EIA, July 29, 2025).
WHAT THIS QUEUE IS — AND ISN’T
This is the generation interconnection queue — the power plants and storage seeking to connect and serve future load growth, of which AI data centers are one driver. It is not a queue of data-center requests: most ISOs do not publish those, and we track them separately where disclosed. Historically, only a minority of queued generation ever reaches operation (LBNL “Queued Up”: roughly 13–20% completion) — that attrition is part of what this number measures.
WHO PAYS FOR AN UNVERIFIED QUEUE
THE RATEPAYER
Electric bills rise to fund grid capacity sized for requests that may never break ground.
THE UTILITY
Transmission capital gets allocated against demand that can vanish from the queue overnight.
THE REGULATOR
Rate cases and integrated resource plans get approved on top of an inflated queue.
THE GRID PLANNER
Reliability studies are polluted by dozens of requests for every project that is confirmable.
THE INVESTOR
AI-buildout exposure gets priced on announced gigawatts — the denominator this number questions.
THE REAL PROJECT
Confirmable projects wait in line behind requests that never intended to build. The speculative slows the real.
THE OPEN WOUND — CONSEQUENCES ALREADY LANDING
These are mechanisms already in motion, not hypotheticals — each one traces back to a queue nobody verifies.
BILLS RISE FIRST, TRUTH ARRIVES LATER
Grid upgrades get planned — and socialized into electric bills — against requested capacity, years before anyone verifies which requests are real.
MORATORIUMS PUNISH EVERYONE
Facing a queue nobody can verify, communities reach for the bluntest tool available: pausing everything. The speculative gets the real blocked.
YEARS ADDED TO EVERY REAL PROJECT
Every speculative request adds study time to the cluster behind it. Its cheapest cost is someone else’s schedule.
CAPITAL PRICES THE ANNOUNCEMENT
AI-infrastructure exposure trades on announced gigawatts. If most of the queue cannot be confirmed, neither can the denominator under those valuations.
REFORM RAISED THE RENT, NOT THE TRUTH
FERC Order 2023 made standing in line more expensive. It did not create a public layer that verifies who intends to build.
VERIFICATION IS NOBODY’S JOB
No ISO publishes which requests are real. The queues count megawatts, not intent. The most important number in the buildout has no referee.
The wound is open. Nobody owns the verification layer.
That is why this index exists: a public, dated, recomputable reading of how much of the boom cannot yet be confirmed — published before the bill, the moratorium, or the write-down arrives.
CITE IT
“Across the live U.S. ISO interconnection queues, active generation and storage requests of 50 MW and up total 883.2 GW — part of the supply pipeline for future load growth, including the AI-era buildout. For every GW showing a signed interconnection agreement or construction status in the queues' own published data (17.5 GW), up to 50.5 GW sit in the queues as requests.” — LOADSTAR, the reality index for AI power.
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