{"national":{"sentence":"Of the 1,183.2 GW requested in the seven U.S. ISO/RTO generation interconnection queues (active requests of 50 MW and up), 302.0 GW, about 25.5%, shows an executed interconnection agreement in the operators’ own queue files. We treat it as a floor, not a forecast: anything the files do not show counts as unverified. Two caveats: in NYISO the status is read from the project stage, and MISO’s active list shows almost none (0.1%); without MISO the share is 33.1%.","sentence_long":"Where U.S. ISO/RTO generation interconnection queues publish a machine-readable interconnection-agreement status, the signed share our reading finds varies widely by queue — from 17% to 81% across the 6 queues where our reading yields a meaningful signed share (CAISO, ISO-NE, SPP, ERCOT, NYISO and PJM); the figure for each queue, with the rule we read it by, is at /verify. Those shares are not a maturity ranking and should not be read against each other: each one reflects its own queue’s disclosure practice and market design. In 1 further queue (MISO) the active list shows almost no executed agreements, so the share there is not comparable with the shares above; the reason for each queue is at /verify. Across all 7 queues (50 MW and up), 1,183.2 GW is requested — a total that is not deduplicated, since one project can appear more than once while it shops utilities or points of interconnection — and 302.0 GW of it shows an executed interconnection agreement in the operator’s own queue file. That is 25.5% of the requested total, and we treat it as a floor: the signed capacity we can count comes only from the queues with a readable status field, while the total covers all 7. We do not estimate how far above that floor the real share sits. A queue position is an early-stage signal in any case: of the capacity that entered U.S. queues from 2000 to 2020, 13% had reached commercial operation by the end of 2025 and 75% had been withdrawn (LBNL, ‘Queued Up: 2026 Edition’, p.55) — a cohort from before FERC’s 2023 reform, so it describes history, not a forecast for today’s queue.","caveat":"This is the GENERATION interconnection queue — power plants and storage seeking to connect to serve future load growth, of which AI data centers are one driver — not data-center (large-load) requests, which most ISOs do not publish. ‘Signed’ means OUR consistent reading of each queue’s own published status field (e.g. CAISO’s ‘Interconnection Agreement Status: Executed’, SPP’s ‘IA FULLY EXECUTED’), including projects already under construction — which require an executed agreement; it is not a certified or audited figure. Status taxonomies differ by ISO, so per-queue shares are not directly comparable, and a near-zero share can be queue design rather than weakness. ERCOT runs a connect-and-manage regime outside FERC’s interconnection jurisdiction; its queue report gives each project an ‘IA Signed’ date, and we count a project as signed from that date until it is approved for synchronization. In ERCOT an agreement can be signed while the full interconnection study is still under way, so a signed ERCOT project may be earlier in development than a signed project in a FERC-jurisdictional queue. PJM publishes Cycle 1 and its two transition cycles in a separate file from its older serial queue; we read both, count only generation requests, and size each request by the larger of its MW Energy and MW Capacity rather than by the whole facility. ERCOT lists a repowered plant at its full size after the repower, and we count it as listed. MISO’s near-zero share is a queue-lifecycle artifact: MISO’s own queue legend defines Active as a project still ‘under the study cycle’ and Done as one that ‘has completed all the studies’, after which agreement negotiation begins — so an active MISO request is by definition still in study, and almost none shows a post-agreement stage. That is not a read on project maturity and not evidence of speculation. An unverified request is NOT a phantom: a queue request is unsigned until it signs, and status is graded (FERC Order No. 2023 replaced serial first-come with first-ready cluster studies). The raw queue is not deduplicated; the same project can appear more than once. Historically most queued generation never reaches operation: of the capacity that requested interconnection from 2000 to 2020, 13% reached commercial operation by the end of 2025, 75% was withdrawn and 10% was still active (LBNL, ‘Queued Up: 2026 Edition’, p.55; by project count rather than capacity the completion figure is 19%, p.4). That cohort ran under the serial regime Order 2023 has since replaced, so it benchmarks history rather than this queue — which is why we report what carries a signed agreement today instead of forecasting what will be built. Descriptive of today, not a forecast.","caveat_short":"‘Signed’ = the operator’s file shows an executed interconnection agreement or, in NYISO and PJM, a project stage we read as one (rule per queue at /verify). 6 of 7 queues yield a meaningful signed share (CAISO, ISO-NE, SPP, ERCOT, NYISO and PJM); any queue not listed sits in the denominator with little or nothing in the numerator. We treat 25.5% as a floor, not a forecast. Unverified ≠ phantom. Descriptive of today.","link":"/methodology","terms":{"raw_gw":"GW requested (active, 50 MW and up)","committed_gw":"GW verified as carrying an executed interconnection agreement","verified_pct":"% of requested GW that is verified-signed (a floor)","ratio":"requested ÷ verified-signed","unread_gw":"GW in queues where our reading finds almost no usable status"},"values":{"raw_gw":1183.2,"committed_gw":302.0,"verified_pct":25.5,"ratio":3.9,"n_unread":0,"unread_gw":0,"n_isos":7,"unread_isos_str":"none","spread_str":"CAISO 81% · ISONE 67% · SPP 48% · ERCOT 29% · NYISO 20% · PJM 17%","near_zero_str":"MISO","n_near_zero":1,"near_zero_pct":0.1,"ex_pct":33.1,"spread_min_pct":17,"spread_max_pct":81,"n_comparable":6,"comparable_isos_str":"CAISO, ISONE, SPP, ERCOT, NYISO and PJM","kw_share_pct":0.0,"kw_isos_str":"none"}},"by_iso":{"ERCOT":{"raw_gw":415.9,"committed_gw":120.3,"raw_mw":415870,"committed_mw":120270},"MISO":{"raw_gw":272.0,"committed_gw":0.2,"raw_mw":271953,"committed_mw":200},"PJM":{"raw_gw":237.2,"committed_gw":41.2,"raw_mw":237164,"committed_mw":41212},"SPP":{"raw_gw":139.4,"committed_gw":67.5,"raw_mw":139426,"committed_mw":67485},"CAISO":{"raw_gw":73.1,"committed_gw":58.9,"raw_mw":73098,"committed_mw":58895},"NYISO":{"raw_gw":35.6,"committed_gw":7.2,"raw_mw":35554,"committed_mw":7233},"ISONE":{"raw_gw":10.1,"committed_gw":6.7,"raw_mw":10128,"committed_mw":6749}},"as_of":"2026-10-14T00:44:32.742479+00:00","cite_as":"LOADSTAR Number, U.S. ISO/RTO generation interconnection queues (7), as of Oct. 14, 2026: 25.5% of requested capacity shows an executed interconnection agreement. index.loadstar.energy/the-number","updated_at":"2026-10-14T00:44:32.790142+00:00","history":{"points":[{"t":"2026-07-16T22:29:41.398968+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.6,"raw":944.1,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-17T23:24:28.914043+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.6,"raw":941.7,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-18T23:24:34.679348+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.6,"raw":942.2,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-19T22:59:26.577659+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.6,"raw":942.2,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-21T00:11:03.215960+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.6,"raw":942.3,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-22T01:19:08.894028+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.6,"raw":942.1,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-23T06:15:45.177683+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.6,"raw":942.1,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-24T06:17:10.900277+00:00","ratio":6.4,"pct":15.5,"raw":941.5,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-25T06:22:03.296312+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.5,"raw":941.9,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-26T06:24:18.036948+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":946.9,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-27T06:27:42.558261+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":946.9,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-28T07:00:14.972496+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":946.9,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-29T12:57:08.401770+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":947.1,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-30T18:34:56.813221+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":947.7,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-07-31T18:45:36.254805+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":948.2,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-01T18:54:39.520881+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":948.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-02T19:07:09.432746+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":948.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-03T19:16:28.000659+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":948.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-04T19:28:41.454602+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":956.8,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-05T19:34:11.346083+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":956.8,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-07T00:30:15.669253+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":956.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-08T00:46:20.474850+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":956.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-09T00:50:48.778241+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":957.2,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-10T00:55:19.607426+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":957.2,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-11T06:13:55.178595+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.3,"raw":957.2,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-12T10:29:13.119393+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.3,"raw":957.1,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-13T22:01:10.965689+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.3,"raw":955.4,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-14T18:49:55.095234+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.3,"raw":954.9,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-15T19:24:47.849229+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.3,"raw":954.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-16T19:41:43.566019+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.3,"raw":954.8,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-17T19:44:17.029439+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.3,"raw":954.8,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-18T22:08:07.393001+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":954.8,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-19T22:47:55.118192+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.3,"raw":955.3,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-21T11:09:42.596612+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":957.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-22T02:00:24.555744+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":958.4,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-23T04:11:27.630320+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":958.4,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-24T06:20:52.482158+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":958.4,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-25T07:13:10.256471+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":958.4,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-26T07:56:20.953473+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":958.4,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-27T11:52:03.295403+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":957.7,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-28T12:56:42.257717+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":958.2,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-29T13:24:42.688349+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.1,"raw":958.5,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-30T14:30:44.972808+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.1,"raw":958.5,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-08-31T15:15:05.917462+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.1,"raw":958.5,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-01T15:29:27.562155+00:00","ratio":6.6,"pct":15.2,"raw":957.1,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-02T15:57:23.755637+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":949.9,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-03T18:01:07.867389+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":950.6,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-04T18:09:36.865095+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":950.4,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-05T19:02:58.296534+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":950.3,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-06T19:08:54.218309+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":950.3,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-07T19:17:29.452830+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":950.3,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-08T19:29:43.193436+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.4,"raw":950.3,"method":"prior"},{"t":"2026-09-09T19:36:13.423940+00:00","ratio":6.5,"pct":15.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signed status is now read from the 'Project Status #' column NYISO publishes on its active queue sheets (11 = IA Completed, 12 = Under Construction). Our earlier reader lost that column, so NYISO counted 0 GW signed; the national signed share rises by roughly 0.8 points from this correction alone, not from market movement."},{"t":"2026-09-24T21:09:00+00:00","what":"PJM's signed capacity now counts projects in the queue status 'Engineering and Procurement', which PJM itself groups with 'Under Construction' as projects with executed final agreements (PJM Markets and Reliability Committee, Sept. 25, 2024). We had counted only 'Under Construction', which undercounted PJM by about 40 GW; the national signed share rises by roughly 4 points from this correction alone, not from market movement."},{"t":"2026-09-25T01:40:00+00:00","what":"ERCOT's signed capacity now counts projects with a date in ERCOT's 'IA Signed' column until they are approved for synchronization. The library we read ERCOT through labels every signed project 'Completed', and we had treated that label as leaving the queue, so ERCOT counted 0 GW signed and its signed projects were missing from the requested total too. The national signed share rises by roughly 9 points from this correction alone, not from market movement."},{"t":"2026-09-29T23:42:25+00:00","what":"Corrections to how we read four queues, all found in one audit, lower the national signed share. PJM: we now read Cycle 1 and the two transition cycles (published in a separate file we had not been reading), count only generation requests (transmission-service requests had been included), and size each request by the larger of its MW Energy and MW Capacity rather than the whole facility. SPP: projects marked 'TERMINATED' no longer count as active. ISO-NE: a transmission line had been counted as a signed generator. ERCOT: a name rule now excludes requests marked as a fuel change, an upgrade or an uprate (two of 50 MW or more, each listed at the size of the whole existing unit). This is a change of method: the number on this date is not comparable with the days before it."}],"range_scope":"current method only","range":{"min":3.8,"max":3.9},"range_pct":{"min":25.5,"max":26.0},"trend":"flat","trend_pct":"flat"},"freshness":{"queues_read_last_day":7,"queues_total":7,"per_queue_read_on":{"ERCOT":"2026-10-13","MISO":"2026-10-13","PJM":"2026-10-13","SPP":"2026-10-13","CAISO":"2026-10-13","NYISO":"2026-10-13","ISONE":"2026-10-13"}},"note":"Canonical, recomputable numbers. Cite freely; methodology at /methodology. GW values are rounded to one decimal, so per-ISO GW may not sum exactly to the national total; the per-ISO MW values match it to within a few MW of rounding."}